Has welfare caused more unmarried births?

Many Conservative pundits like to claim that the marriage rates and out of wedlock births in black America are caused by Great Society welfare programs. They claim it like it is simply a fact and like welfare is the main cause. For example: popular YouTube pundit Steven Crowder casually makes the claim repeatedly. But, he’s WRONG!

Scholars have produced many papers studying the subject, both for Great Society welfare programs that started in the 60s, and for welfare changes since. Conservative and Liberal sources seem to have come close to a consensus: different types of welfare do produce a marriage disincentive for some people, whereby people would lose money if they got married, but…the actual effect of this disincentive is inconsistent and small.

Marriage Penalty

The marriage penalty has arisen from a variety of welfare programs over the years.

It has come about when welfare is offered to single women, but not when they marry. The idea behind such setups is that when the woman is married, the man will take care of the child. The problem is, this means the woman loses those welfare benefits and may decide to not marry to keep the benefits.

The situation can also arise when welfare is based on household income. A man and woman may each make low enough to qualify for certain benefits, but after they marry, their joint income may put such benefits out of reach. Thus, they have the incentive to remain unmarried.